Kafin ka fara tunanin abin da za ka saya a kasuwar altcoins, tsaya ka yi tunani: Yaushe ne rabon da ka ga ana wani gagarumin “Altcoin Season” wanda mutane ke ninka jarinsu sau goma ko sau ɗari a cikin ‘yan kwanaki?
A baya, kasuwar crypto tana da wata al'ada da kowa ya saba da ita: Bitcoin zai yi tashin gwauron zabi, Daga nan masu zuba jari su cire ribarsu su koma kan Ethereum, Daga nan kuma kudaden su kwarara zuwa sauran Altcoins, Kasuwa zata cika da murna saboda a irin girgizar ƙasar kuɗaɗen dake faruwa.
Sannu a hankali, wannan tsohon tsarin da alama ya zama tarihi. Masu sharhi da kwararru da dama a duniyar crypto sun fara tunanin cewa: Ko dai lokacin Altcoin Season ya kare baki ɗaya?
Gaskiyar Waqi,'i:
1. Ambaliyar Sababbin Coins (Token Flooding)
A lokutan baya (kamar 2017 ko 2021), altcoins ba su da yawa kamar yadda suke yanzu. Yau kuma? Ana ƙirƙirar dubban sababbin cryptos a kowace rana.
Abin lura: Idan kudi misalin biliyan $10 ne suka shigo kasuwa a shekarar 2021, an raba su ne a tsakanin coins daidai da ake da su a lokacin. Amma idan biliyan $10 suka shigo kasuwa yanzu, za a raba su ne tsakanin dubban dubban sababbin project (tokens).
Sakamakon haka, maimakon kudi su mayar da hankali guda domin tayar da altcoins baki ɗaya, yanzu kasuwar ta faɗaɗa (fragmentation). Ba mai yiwuwa ba ne kowane altcoin ya yi saman tare a lokaci guda kamar yadda aka saba.
2. Tsarin VCs da Holders (Low Float, High FDV)
Wannan shi ne babban "gurguzu" da ya lalata asalin tsarin da ƴan kasuwa sukayi amanna dashi. A halin yanzu, cibiyoyin zuba jari (Venture Capitals / VCs) suna tallata sababbin (projects) a kan farashi mai matukar tsada sosai (Fully Diluted Valuation - FDV), amma lokacin listing sai su fito da supply kaɗan (Low Float).
Me hakan yake nufi?
Masu zuba jari na farko (VCs) sun saya a kan arha, sannan idan aka yi listing a kasuwa (exchange), su kuma sai su rika fito da shares (bags) dinsu a hankali suna sayarwa (retail traders). Sauran ƳanBaiwa da suka saya a kasuwa haka zasu cigaba da ganin kuɗin su yana narkewa sakamakon allocation na waɗannan VCs da suke dumping (unlocks).
3. Shigar Manyan Bankuna da Cibiyoyin Kudi (Institutional Money)
A yau, ba yaku bayi ne kadai ke shigo da kudi kasuwar crypto ba. Ƙaddamar Bitcoin da Ethereum ETFs, tasa manyan cibiyoyin kudi na duniya (kamar su BlackRock, Fidelity) sun shigo gaba-gadi.
Duk da haka, waɗannan cibiyoyi ba sa rawar kai wajen zuba kudi a cikin memecoin ko kananan altcoins masu haɗari sosai. Mafi yawan investment dinsu akan Bitcoin ne domin kariya daga hauhawar farashi. Lokacin da suka samu profits suna zare kudadensu daga cikin Bitcoin, amma ba kamar yadda aka sani ba, ba sa mayarda kuɗaɗen zuwa cikin kananan altcoins bisa tsammanin mafi yawan ƴan kasuwar.
4. Dabia'ar "Memecoin" da Watsewar Capital
A baya, projects da ke da amfani na gaske (utility) sune ke jan hankalin masu zuba jari. Amma yanzu, sakamakon rashin samun riba a coins da dama, hankalin mutane da yawa ya koma kan Memecoins narratives.
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Mafiya yawan ƳanBaiwa (retail traders) yanzu suna ganin: "Maimakon in riƙe wani altcoin na tsawon shekara guda domin in samu ribar 2x, me zai hana in sa a memecoin domin in samu 10x a cikin sa'o'i guda?"
Wannan tunani ya sauya tsarin junjuyawar kudi a kasuwar. Kudin da ya kamata ya bunƙasa kasuwar altcoins ya sanya ta ɗauki saiti, yanzu yana tururuwa ne kawai wajen memecoins—wanda shima caca ce mai tsada da haɗari babba.
Shin Da Gaske Ne Altcoin Season Ya Mutu Baki Ɗaya?
Kai tsaye baza'ace lokacin altcoin ya kare kwata-kwata ba, amma gaskiyar ita ce: "Altcoin Season na Din-din-din wanda KOWANNE coin ke tashin gwauron zabi shine ba lallai ƴan kiripto su kuma ganin irin saba"
Daga yanzu zuwa zamanin gaba, tsagwaron amfanin project da gaske, tsari mai kyau na samun kudin shiga (real revenue), da kuma kwarewar team da jajircewar su shine zai dinga jagorantar nasarar token.
Gaskiyar Yadda Kasuwa Ta Juya (The New Reality):
Gudun Wuce Sa'a (Selective Pumps): Yanzu kasuwar crypto tana pump galibi cikin rukuni, wasu tsirarrun ɓangarori kawai za'a wayi gari suna pumping (misali: Real World Assets (RWA), AI-Tokens, ko kuma Layer-2s na musamman) ba kamar yadda aka sani a baya kasuwar kan tashi tashi a tare lokaci guda.
Ilimi da Nazari: Yan kasuwar da ba sa bincike sosai za su gaza tsira. Lokacin sayen kowane coin kawai domin ana tallata shi ya wuce.
A Shawarar Ce!
1. Ka Guje Wa FDV Mai Yawa: Kar ka saya sabon coin saboda kawai yana da arha a farashi, duba cikon adadin tokens din da za a fito da su nan gaba (tsarin unlocks).
2. Kula da Tokenomics: Sanin tsarin rarraba tokens da lokutan da masu zuba jari na farko (early investors) za su samu damar sayar da kason su (allocation) yana da matukar muhimmanci.
3. Ka Rage Sa rai (Manage Expectations): Yanzu tunanin samun (100x) a kan tsofaffin altcoins ya zama kalubale. Mayar da hankali wajen kiyaye jarinka maimakon neman riba ta gaggawa.
4. Zuba Jari A Fannin Da Kake da Ilimi Kaɗai: Kar ka bi hype kawai saboda mutane suna hargowa a dandalin X (Twitter) ko Telegram.
A Ƙarshe: Kasuwar Crypto ba ta mutu ba, kawai an samu maturity ne. Yadda ka ke gudanar da kasuwanci a shekarar 2021 ba zai yi ma ka aiki a yau ba. Wadanda suka fahimci canjin tsarin kasuwar tun wuri sune kadai za su ci gaba da samun riba a wannan sabon zamani.
