Bitcoin ya dawo da ƙarfi. Hukumomi sun fara tsundumo kafarsu. ETF inflows sun farfaɗo. Ethereum yana jan hankali. To me ya sa har yanzu zuciyar ka ta kasa yarda ko Bull Market ne?
Bisa al'adar kasuwar crypto akwai wani lokaci da zaka ga kamar komai yana tafiya dai-dai.
Farashi yana hawa.
Kuɗi yana shigowa.
Bitcoin yana ƙarfi.
Masu zuba jari suna dawowa.
Amma a zuciyar mutane akwai wata murya da take cewa:
“Ka yi hankali. Mun taɓa ganin wannan a baya.”
Wannan shi ne yanayin da kasuwar crypto take ciki yanzu.
A watan Agusta, Spot Bitcoin ETFs sun samu sama da dala biliyan 3 na inflows, yayin da Bitcoin ya sake hawa sama da $80,000. Amma a ranar 28 ga Agusta, ETFs suka fuskanci kusan $201.9M na outflows, wanda ya kawo ƙarshen kwanaki tara a jere na inflows.
Wannan ba yana nufin Bull Market ya ƙare ba.
Amma yana tunatar da mu cewa:
Bull Market na gaskiya yana buƙatar fiye da hau-hawar farashi.
ABIN DA YA FI ƊAUKAR HANKALI
Ya kamata ka san cewa manyan drivers na kasuwa yanzu guda biyu ne.
Na farko: institutional demand.
ETF inflows sun nuna cewa manyan masu zuba jari har yanzu suna kallon Bitcoin a matsayin asset da ya cancanci capital.
Na biyu: macro.
Fed, interest rates, inflation da Treasury yields har yanzu suna iya sauya yanayin kasuwa cikin sauri.
Wannan shi ne babban rikicin da ke gaban crypto:
Kasuwar crypto tana buƙatar sliquidity.
Sai dai inda Gizo ke saƙa shine, har yanzu macro economics basu bayar da tabbacin cewa liquidity zai ci gaba da kasancewa cikin sauƙi ba a kasuwar.
Saboda haka, yanzu tambayar ba ita ce:
“Shin Bitcoin zai tashi?” ba
Tambayar ita ce:
“Me ke harba farashin Bitcoin—kuma shin wannan ƙarfin zai iya ɗorewa?”
KAFIN FARASHI YA RUƊEKA, KA FARA AMSAWA KANKA WAƊANNAN TAMBAYOYIN:
Bull market na gaske yana buƙatar ɗorewar demand, shin akwai alamun hakan bisa alkaluma?
Kwaranyar kuɗaɗe cikin lalitar Bitcoin ETF ba tareda yankewa ba, me ka gani bisa haka?
Bitcoin yana gina sabon market structure mai ƙarfi?
Iya Bitcoin ne ke sharafi ko harda sauran alts?
A iya ganin ka, shin akwai alamun cewa liquidity yana ƙaruwa a kasuwar?
Sai kuma abu mafi muhimmanci da zaka tambayi kanka:
Shin yanzu kasuwar tana iya jure mummunan labari ba tare da an samu crash ba?
Domin idan kasuwa tana tashi ne kawai lokacin da labari yake da kyau, wannan ba cikakken bull bane.
Ƙarfi na gaskiya shi ne lokacin da kasuwa ta fuskanci matsin lamba—amma ta ci gaba da tsayawa.
TO, BULL MARKET NE KO TARKO?
Gaskiyar magana ita ce:
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Har yanzu ba mu da cikakkiyar amsa.
Alamomin bullish suna nan.
ETF demand ta dawo.
Bitcoin ya farfaɗo.
Ethereum yana samun kulawa.
Amma macro har yanzu yana iya zama babban cikas. Masu nazari ma suna ganin cewa har yanzu lokaci bai yi da za'a tabbatar da ko wannan rally zai rikide zuwa cikakken bull market ba.
Saboda haka, kada mu yi gaggawar cewa:
“Bull Market ya fara!”
Amma kada kuma mu yi gaggawar cewa:
“Tarko ne!”
Maimakon haka…
Mu sanya idanun mu da kyau anan:
Mu kalli flows.
Mu kalli liquidity.
Mu kalli Bitcoin structure.
Mu kalli Ethereum da altcoins.
Mu kalli Fed.
ba zamu shiga kasuwa bisa hasashe ba.
DARASIN DA KASUWA TAKE BA MU
Wataƙila wannan shi ne mafi muhimmancin darasi.
Kasuwar crypto ba ta bin fata.
Ba ta bin tsoro.
Ba ta bin tweets.
Ba ta bin predictions.
Kasuwar tana bin demand, liquidity, sentiment da macroeconomics ne.
Saboda haka, idan Bitcoin ya tashi, kada tambayar farko ta zamar maka:
“Yaushe zan shiga?”
Ka fara tambaya:
“Menene dalilin da yasa yake tashi?”
Idan akwai real demand, institutional capital, liquidity da ingantaccen market structure, labarin yana ƙara ƙarfi.
Amma idan motsin ya dogara ne kan FOMO da leverage kawai…
to akwai yiwuwar tarko ne.
A ƙarshe, Bull Market na gaskiya ba ya buƙatar mu yi imani da shi.
Yana tabbatar da kansa.
