A cikin 'yan makonnin nan, kasuwar cryptocurrency ta sake shiga wani yanayi na rashin tabbas. Kusan kowace rana ana samun sabon labari da ke ƙara firgita ƴan kasuwar. Wasu na ganin wannan wata dama ce ta saye, yayin da wasu kuma ke ganin har yanzu kasuwar ba ta kai matakin ƙasa (market bottom) ba.
Akwai manyan batutuwa huɗu da suka mamaye tattaunawar kasuwa a halin yanzu, kuma dukkansu suna da tasiri ga Bitcoin da sauran kadarorin crypto.
Rikicin Iran da Mashigar Hormuz
Mashigar Hormuz na ɗaya daga cikin muhimman hanyoyin jigilar man fetur a duniya. Duk wani tashin hankali da ya shafi wannan mashiga yana iya haifar da tashin farashin mai da kuma ƙara matsin lambar hauhawar farashi (inflation).
Ko da yake an samu wasu matakan rage rikici tsakanin Iran da ƙasashen yamma, har yanzu akwai rashin tabbas kan makomar yankin. Masu zuba jari suna ci gaba da sa ido domin duk wani sabon rikici na iya girgiza kasuwannin duniya, ciki har da crypto.
Tsoron Fed na Ƙara Yawan Kuɗin Ruwa
Babban Bankin Amurka (Federal Reserve) ya kasance yana nuna cewa har yanzu ya damu da hauhawar farashi. Duk da cewa bai ɗaga kuɗin ruwa ba a wasu tarurrukan baya-bayan nan, jami'an bankin sun nuna cewa ƙarin matakan tsaurara manufofin kuɗi na iya kasancewa a gaba idan inflation bai lafa ba.
Idan aka ƙara kuɗin ruwa:
- Investors sukan cire kuɗaɗen su daga kadarori masu haɗari kamar Crypto.
- Kwararrun masu saka jari kan koma zuwa kadarorin da ake ganin sun fi aminci (safe heaven assets).
- Fargaba nasa jama'u suja baya da crypto, wanda hakan ka haifar da matsin lambar farashi zuwa ƙasa.
Saboda haka, duk lokacin da ake hasashen Fed zai ƙara kuɗin ruwa, kasuwar crypto kan shiga yanayin tsoro.
Labarin Michael Saylor da Sayar da Bitcoin
Michael Saylor ya shahara a matsayin ɗaya daga cikin manyan masu goyon bayan Bitcoin. Tsawon shekaru yana maimaita kalmar cewa "kar a sayar da Bitcoin."
Sai dai a wannan shekarar an samu rahotannin cewa kamfaninsa ya cefar da wani adadi na Bitcoin domin wasu buƙatun kuɗi, lamarin da ya jawo muhawara sosai. Baya ga haka, an kuma samu jita-jitar cewa kamfanin na iya samun damar sayar da Bitcoin har darajar biliyoyin daloli idan buƙata ta taso. Wannan ya sa wasu masu saka jari suka fara tambayar ko manufar "Never Sell" tana nan daram. Duk da haka, babu wata shaida cewa kamfanin zai sayar da Bitcoin din na kimanin biliyan 5 gaba ɗaya cikin kasuwa; mafi yawan abin da ake tattaunawa shi ne yiwuwar hakan ko tsarin da zai ba da damar yin hakan idan ya zama dole.
A irin wannan yanayi, kasuwa ba wai girman adadin Bitcoin da aka sayar ne kawai take dubawa ba, har ma da saƙon da hakan yake isarwa ga masu zuba jari.
Matsalar Coldcard da Fargabar Self-Custody
Enjoying this analysis?
Subscribe to get more deep dives directly in your inbox.
Wani batu da ya tayar da hankali shi ne abin da ya shafi Coldcard, ɗaya daga cikin shahararrun hardware wallets na Bitcoin.
Rahotannin da suka bayyana sun sa wasu masu amfani suka fara nuna damuwa game da tsaron ajiyar Bitcoin da kansu (self-custody). Duk da cewa masana da dama suna jaddada cewa self-custody har yanzu na daga cikin hanyoyin da suka fi kare kadarori idan an yi amfani da ita yadda ya kamata, irin waɗannan labarai kan rage kwarin gwiwar sabbin masu shiga kasuwa kuma su ƙara fargaba a tsakanin masu saka jari.
Shin Wannan Alamar Bear Market Ce?
A tarihi, kasuwar bear ta crypto tana cike da abubuwa guda uku:
- Yawaitar labaran tsoro (FUD).
- Rashin tabbas daga tattalin arzikin duniya.
- Rashin kwarin gwiwa daga investors.
A yau, kusan duk waɗannan alamomi suna bayyana lokaci guda. Rikicin siyasa, manufofin Fed, jita-jitar manyan masu riƙe da Bitcoin, da kuma damuwar tsaro sun haɗu suna matsa lamba ga kasuwa.
Sai dai kuma akwai wani darasi da tarihin kasuwar crypto ta koya mana. A lokutan da tsoro ya yi yawa ne kasuwa kan kasance mafi wahalar hasashe. Wasu lokuta irin wannan yanayi yana kasancewa kafin kasuwa ta fara murmurewa, wasu lokuta kuma yana iya zama har yanzu akwai ƙarin saukar farashi a gaba.
Me Ya Kamata Masu Zuba Jari Su Yi?
Maimakon yanke hukunci bisa jita-jita ko tsoro, yana da muhimmanci masu zuba jari su:
- Bi sahihan bayanai maimakon jita-jita.
- Fahimci yadda manufofin Fed da tattalin arzikin duniya ke tasiri ga crypto.
- Guji yanke shawara cikin firgici.
- Tsara dabarar saka hannun jari na dogon lokaci bayan cikakken bincike.
Kasuwar crypto ta shiga wani yanayi mai cike da ƙalubale. Rikicin Gabas ta Tsakiya, yiwuwar tsaurara manufofin kuɗi daga Fed, muhawarar da ta shafi Michael Saylor, da kuma damuwar da ta taso kan self-custody duk sun haɗu suna ƙara rashin tabbas a kasuwa.
Yanzu tambayar da har yanzu take ci gaba da yawo ita ce: Shin kasuwar ta riga ta kai ƙasa, ko kuwa har yanzu akwai wani sabon babin bear market da zai buɗe? Lokaci alƙali.
