BITCOIN BOTTOM - bear ko sabon cycle?

Kasuwar crypto a halin yanzu tana cikin wani babban rudani da ya sa hankalin daruruwan dubban masu zuba jari a fadin duniya ya tashi. Bayan da Bitcoin (BTC) ya taba kololuwar farashi kusan $126,277 a watan Oktoban 2025, abubuwa sun sauya da sauri inda farashinsa ya dawo kasa har kusa da $60,000 a yau shekara 04-062026.

Wannan faduwar farashi da ta kai kusan kashi 51% daga kololuwar da aka taba samu, ta sa mutane da dama suna tambayar kai: Shin muna tsaka da tsananin Bear Market ne, ko kuwa hakan na nufin faduwar kasuwar ta riga ta zo karshe ne kuma lokacin farfadowa ya kusa?

A cikin wannan cikakken rahoton, za mu fuskanci hujjoji daban-daban na masana da kuma manyan abubuwan da ke faruwa a kasuwar a yanzu.

Me Yasa Kasuwar Crypto Take Faduwa A Yanzu?

Don fahimtar ko Bear Market ya kare, dole ne mu duba abubuwan da suka janyo faduwar da fari. Akwai manyan dalilai guda uku da suka hadu suka girgiza kasuwar a yan kwanakin nan:

Siyar da Bitcoin da Kamfanoni Suka Yi: Labarin da ya fi girgiza kasuwa shi ne bayanan da suka fito daga hukumar SEC, inda aka bayyana cewa wani babban kamfani ya sayar da guda 32 na Bitcoin dinsa domin biyan wasu basuka na daban. Ko da yake adadin ba mai yawa ba ne, hakan ya tsorata masu zuba jari saboda an dade ana kallon wadannan kamfanonin a matsayin wadanda ba za su taba siyar da tasu kadarar ta Bitcoin ba.

Tatsar Kudi Daga Bitcoin ETFs: An samu kwashe kudaden zuba jari (outflows) na kwanaki 13 a jere daga asusun US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Wannan ya sanya kusan dalar Amurka biliyan $3.45 ficewa daga kasuwar, wanda hakan ya rage karfin gwiwar manyan ma'aikatun kudi na Wall Street.

Hauhawar Farashin Man Fetur da Siyasar Duniya: Rikicin da ya barke tsakanin Amurka da Iran a watan Fabrairu ya janyo hauhawar farashin danyen mai a duniya. Wannan ya sa hauhawar farashin kaya (inflation) ya ki sauka, wanda kuma ya tilasta wa Bankin Amurka (Federal Reserve) tsawaita lokacin rage kudin ruwa (interest rates), har ma wasu ke tunanin za a iya karawa.

Hujjojin Da Ke Nuna Bear Market "Yana Gab Da Karewa"

Duk da wannan tsoro da fargaba, fitattun masana na bangaren kudi da bincike suna ganin wannan shi ne "Lokacin Damar Karshe" kafin kasuwa ta juya.

1. Hasashen Bankin Standard Chartered

Geoff Kendrick, babban jami'in binciken kadarorin dijital na bankin Standard Chartered, ya bayyana wa abokan cinikinsu cewa faduwar da ake ciki tana matakin karshe ne, kuma akwai yiwuwar wannan shine bottom na kasuwar. Ya ce: "Ina ganin idan muka duba baya a karshen shekarar 2026 lokacin da BTC zai kasance a $100,000… za mu ce wannan shi ne matakin siye (buying zone) da kowa ke nema."

2. Binciken Kamfanin Weiss Crypto

Haka zalika, babban masani Juan M. Villaverde na kamfanin Weiss Crypto ya bayyana cewa binciken tsarin lokaci na kasuwa (cycle analysis) ya nuna cewa faduwar da aka yi tana cikin tsarin da aka dade ana tsammani. A cewarsa, wannan faduwar ta karshe ita ce ke tabbatar da cewa Bear Market din yana shirin karewa, kuma nan ba da dadewa ba za a fara sabon babban rali (bullish leg up).

Masu Ra'ayin Bear Market (The Bearish View)

Bayanai Na Glassnode (On-Chain Data): Kamfanin bincike na Glassnode ya bayyana cewa masu rike da Bitcoin na dogon lokaci (Long-Term Holders) suna siyar da nasu kadarorin cikin asara, wanda ke nuna fargaba a tsakaninsu. Sannan kuma farashin Bitcoin ya kasa ketare shingen $83,000 wanda shi ne matsakaicin farashin da masu zuba jarin ETF suka siye shi. Wannan ya maida wannan farashi ya zama babbar kariya (resistance).

Kalaman Shugaban BitMEX: Stephan Lutz, Shugaban kamfanin BitMEX, ya fito fili ya bayyana cewa kasuwar crypto tana can cikin tsaka-tsakin "Full Bear Phase". Ya kara da cewa yawan hada-hadar kudi (trading volume) ya ragu da kashi 40% zuwa 60%. Sai dai yana kyautata zaton cewa fasahohin kasuwanci irinsu Tokenized Bonds da kuma amfani da Stablecoins su ne zasu kawo guguwa ta gaba.

Ku Sanya Idanu Anan

Ga masu cinikin crypto da kuma masu zuba jari, akwai wasu matakan farashi (key levels) guda biyu da ya kamata a dinga lura dasu:

$63,000-$65,000: Wannan support zone mai ƙarfi. Idan Bitcoin ta riƙe wannan matakin kuma ya koma kasada $60,000 akwai barazanar kasuwa zata cigaba da yin kasa 

$70,000-$75,000: Wannan shine matakin kariya (Resistance) da ake kyauta zaton idan ya samu Bitcoin nasarar tsallakewa to share fagen zuwa $80,000+ hakan na iya bada tabbacin cewa bear market ya kare 

Tarihin Bitcoin ya nuna cewa mafi kyawun lokacin zuba jari shi ne lokacin da kowa ke tsoro kuma kasuwa take kasa. Tambayar cewa "Shin Bear Market ya riga ya kare?" tana da amsoshi guda biyu dangane da irin dabarun cinikayyarka:

Idan kai mai zuba jari ne na dogon lokaci (Long-Term Investor), masana da dama suna kallon wannan matakin na $60,000 zuwa $63,000 a matsayin dama ta gwal kafin Bitcoin ya nufi $100,000 a karshen shekara.

Idan kuma kai mai ciniki ne na gajeren lokaci (Short-Term Trader), yana da kyau ka jira har sai Bitcoin ya tabbatar da dawowar sa sama ta hanyar fasa matakin $70,000 da karfi, tare da kiyaye matakan tsaro na sarrafa hadari (risk management).